Can Canada wait out the trade war with the US?

November 25, 2025

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is adopting a deliberate, unhurried approach to trade negotiations with the United States, dismissing concerns about when he last communicated with President Trump and stating there is no "burning issue" requiring immediate discussion. Trade talks between the nations stalled last month after Trump objected to an Ontario-commissioned advertisement featuring Ronald Reagan criticizing tariffs, though Canadian provincial representatives continue lobbying U.S. lawmakers on Capitol Hill. While the U.S. has imposed significant tariffs on Canadian goods—including 35% on general goods and 50% on metals—Carney is focusing on diversifying Canada's export markets and providing domestic financial relief rather than rushing into negotiations.

Who is affected

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney
U.S. President Donald Trump
Canadian steel and aluminum producers (specifically mentioned: Aluminium Association of Canada and its president Jean Simard)
Canadian automobile sector
Manitoba's heavy machinery sector
U.S. voters (76% view economy negatively according to polls)
U.S. consumers facing affordability issues
U.S. lawmakers and Congress members
Canadian opposition Conservatives
Workers facing job losses in affected sectors
American businesses dependent on Canadian aluminum imports

What action is being taken

Carney is considering traveling to Washington next week for the FIFA World Cup draw
Canadian provincial representatives are advocating on Canada's behalf with U.S. lawmakers on Capitol Hill
The Carney government is offering financial relief to sectors impacted by U.S. tariffs
Carney has been making global trips to pitch Canada overseas, including to the United Arab Emirates and G20 in South Africa
Canadian aluminum producers are absorbing initial tariff-related costs to meet contractual obligations with U.S. customers
The Office of the United States Trade Representative will be holding public hearings in early December on the USMCA free trade agreement

Why it matters

This trade dispute matters because Canada sends approximately three-quarters of its exports to the United States, making its economy particularly vulnerable to U.S. tariff policies. The situation has significant political implications for both countries: Trump faces midterm elections with 76% of U.S. voters viewing the economy negatively, while Carney faces domestic criticism for job losses and his handling of negotiations. The standoff affects critical industries on both sides—Canadian producers are losing revenue while American consumers and businesses face higher costs and depleting stockpiles of essential materials like aluminum. The outcome will shape North American trade relations and could influence the 2026 review of the USMCA free trade agreement, potentially affecting economic stability across the continent for years to come.

What's next

Carney is considering traveling to Washington next week for the FIFA World Cup draw, where he and Trump could potentially meet
The Office of the United States Trade Representative will be holding public hearings in early December on the USMCA free trade agreement
U.S. midterm elections are upcoming
A review of the USMCA free trade agreement between Canada, the U.S., and Mexico is scheduled for 2026

Read full article from source: BBC